Saturday, January 16, 2010


“Big Water” floods “small town” every time.

The closer the Republican Party gets to Sarah Palin, the closer the Republican Party gets to electoral oblivion. That’s not an opinion. That’s a fact.

So long as the Democrats run a “Big Water” strategy, they will win every Presidential election for the foreseeable future. That also is not an opinion. That’s a fact.

The combination of a Democratic “Big Water” strategy coupled with the meteoric, pop-culture, Twitter-Facebook rise to prominence of Sarah Palin will be a virtual guarantee of more Democratic Presidents and the eventual demise, perhaps disappearance of the Republican Party. When the Grand Old Party is no more, the historical blame will be properly laid right at the feet of the one-time, half-term Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin.

Palin first…

Whether or not you like her, agree wither policy positions (or even believe she has policy positions), respect her as a political figure of national stature, consider her qualified or not to hold national elective office – none of that matters. Just look at what she actually has to say, what she’s actually proud of, in fact what she’s determined to establish as her political signature. There’s no disagreement about this. Sarah Palin runs against the coastal elites, the big city liberals and the entire value system of the modern major metropolitan area. She is small town, old-time, “I Want My County Back!” America running hard against the ungodly, evil “domestic terrorists” in the big city. She stands for “real Americans” – meaning small town, small state, rural folks - against whatever the rest of us are, wherever the rest of us live. That is how she ran her campaign for Vice President and that’s how she’s campaigned on behalf of her book. That will be how she runs for President. You betcha!

All of Sarah Palin’s appearances have been in small towns and small cities. She has never campaigned in or tried to sell her books in, say… New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit… or even in places like Atlanta, Birmingham, Houston, Dallas or St. Louis – all big cities in states carried by McCain/Palin but also big cities she and John McCain lost to the Democrats even while carrying those states.

Sarah Palin appears to relish the conflict between small and big America. And as long as the Republican Party buys into this view, they are certain to be defeated. Like the stars in the night sky in “Dances With Wolves” there are just too many Big City Americans for Sarah Palin to ever win a national election. You can even “pal around with domestic terrorists” and still beat her hands down.

Why does a “Big Water” strategy guarantee a Democratic victory? Look at the numbers. The coastal elite lives in 3 states on the West Coast with 73 electoral votes. Obama carried all 3 and received all 73 “Big Water” Pacific Electoral College votes. The coastal elite on the East Coast lives in 14 states, which border on the Atlantic Ocean. These 14 states have 136 electoral votes. The Democrats under Obama carried 12 of the 14 “Big Water” Atlantic states receiving 113 of these Electoral College votes leaving the Republicans with only Georgia and South Carolina, with only 23 Electoral College votes.

The same big city elites clustered along America’s ocean coasts are also found in the 8 “Big Water” states with shorelines along the Great Lakes. Obama carried every one of the 8 states for a total of 141 more Electoral College votes. All told the “Big Water” states have 350 Electoral College votes. If a major American political party is going to base its appeal on running against these American people and the American lifestyle of these states, how could they ever hope to win a national election?

In the 2008 Presidential election the Democrats won 327 of the Electoral College votes in the “Big Water” states. Worse yet for the Republicans, in only 3 of these 23 states was the result even close – Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina. These states have 39 electoral votes. If the Republicans somehow won them all, Obama still would have been elected with 288 electoral votes. And this doesn’t begin to count the 4 additional states won by the Democrats that have no “Big Water” connections at all – Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa and 1 electoral vote in Nebraska.

If Sarah Palin wants to do battle – Small Town v. Big City - look at it this way… McCain/Palin managed to win only 1 city in the Top 27 metro areas. That city was Phoenix, Arizona. Look it up. From #1 New York, NY through #27 Orlando, FL, every major metropolitan area voted Democratic except Phoenix. How can you hope to win a national election like that?

Of the Top 100 metro areas in the United States the 2008 Republican Party, with Sarah Palin as the star of their ticket, could only win in 19 of them. And while these 19 are in the Top 100, keep in mind among them are places like Greenville SC, Knoxville TN, Provo UT, Ogden UT, McAllen TX… not exactly the kind of major population centers you need to win a national election contest. And that’s why McCain/Palin lost.

In the electoral fight pitting Big City “elites” against Small Town “real Americans” starting with Metro Area #1 New York NY and going all the way to #150 Naples FL, the Republicans with John McCain and Sarah Palin managed to get more votes in only 30 of these places. If you lose in 120 of the Top 150, are you really a serious contender?

If the Republican Party follows Sarah Palin in 2012 and 2016 that political party may well continue to carry population centers like Naples FL, Boise ID, Wichita KS, Springfield MO and Anchorage AK – but the Electoral College prizes that are in “Big Water” America will hardly know there is a Republican Party. If the Republicans persist in making Sarah Palin the cover girl of their national appeal, whomever the Democrats run will simply waltz into the White House leaving the ghost of the GOP a lonely “first runner-up” in their wake.

1 comment:

jastover said...

Palin and the GOP get closer?? Nah that's an opinion, not a fact!

And it's moot. The Presidential election of November 2008 was as much a rejection of the Bush Administration as it was an embrace of Obama and his hidden agendas.

Now that Obama is out in the open, the country, including many of your "big water" states, don't like what they see. 2010 will be very different, no matter what the role played by the former Governor of Alaska which, btw, is the biggest water state of them all.