Tuesday, July 8, 2008


Barack Obama will win a landslide victory in the Electoral College as the result of the votes cast in 50 states and the District of Columbia in November 2008. Our Electoral History says as much.

Despite the dual victories of George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, and the 62 million votes he received in 2004 (the most ever, for any Presidential candidate), there were 19 states that voted for Al Gore in 2000 and then in 2004 voted for John Kerry. Since these states also voted for Bill Clinton in the 1990s, clearly they are 19 solid Democratic states. There is no reason to believe they will not vote for the Democratic candidate in 2008. They will and they represent 248 votes in Electoral College. Obama begins needing only 22 more Electoral College votes to be the next President. These 19 states with their Electoral College votes are as follows:

California 55; New York 31; Illinois 21; Pennsylvania 21; Michigan 17; New Jersey 15; Mass. 12; Washington 11; Wisconsin 10; Minnesota 10; Maryland 10; Oregon 9; Conn. 7; Hawaii 4; Rhode Island 4; Maine 4; Delaware 3; Wash DC 3; Vermont 3; TOTAL= 248.

There were two other states Al Gore carried, but John Kerry lost: Iowa with 7 Electoral votes and New Mexico with 5. Obama could easily win either or both of these states.

Bill Clinton carried all these states plus 10 0thers in his winning campaigns. Yes, some of the original Clinton states are in what has been called “The Race Belt” and are unlikely to vote for Obama. They are Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana and Arkansas. It’s a fair guess Obama will not carry any of these states.

But, 4 other Bill Clinton states are possibilities for an Obama victory. They are: Florida 27; Ohio 20; Missouri 11; and Nevada 5. These 4 have a combined Electoral College vote of 63.

While there appears to be no reasonable chance for John McCain to break into any of the 19 Gore/Kerry states with 248 Electoral votes, there are 4 Bush red-states that are vulnerable to an Obama campaign. They are: North Carolina 15; Virginia 13; Colorado 9; and New Hampshire 4. The total number of Electoral votes for these states is 41.

Two additional red-states, not normally susceptible to a Democratic victory are in-play this time around because of the effect of a third-party candidate. The Libertarian Party is running former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr as its Presidential candidate. He has enormous popularity in his home state and also in the heavily Libertarian state of Alaska. Although these states are normally solid Republican, with Barr on the ballot taking as much as 6 to 10 percent of the vote, Obama may beat McCain in both Georgia and possibly Alaska too. Georgia has 15 Electoral votes; Alaska has 3. Georgia may prove to be the Florida of 2008, and Bob Barr the Ralph Nader of this election.

So, how will all this come out? If Barack Obama is assured of carrying 19 states with 248 Electoral votes, he will have at least a dozen opportunities to get the remaining 22 votes he needs for victory. In his best-case scenario, Obama wins 30 states plus the District of Columbia for a total of 382 Electoral votes. McCain would win only 156. In perhaps a more likely scenario, Obama carries the 18 Gore/Kerry states plus Washington DC and he manages a win in Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), and Georgia (15). This would give Obama 306 Electoral votes to McCain’s 232.

The 2008 Presidential election(s) will not be close. As the polls close in the Eastern Time Zone, state after state will be “called” for Obama by the eager beavers who chew the wood in the network studios. An hour later, when the polls in the Central Time Zone states close, Obama will be hailed as the President-Elect of the United States. John McCain will be left to go the way of Bob Dole and so many others.

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